(Araucaria) Fw: [SPCG] ENC: ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

[Adriano Perazio]

-----Mensagem Original----- 
From: Fabio A Santos
Sent: Friday, December 09, 2011 3:07 PM
To: spcg_ra em googlegroups.com
Subject: ENC: [SPCG] ENC: ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA



-----Mensagem original-----
De: spcg_ra em googlegroups.com [mailto:spcg_ra em googlegroups.com] Em nome de
Fabio A Santos
Enviada em: Friday, December 09, 2011 3:02 PM
Para: spcg_ra em googlegroups.com
Assunto: [SPCG] ENC: ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA



-----Mensagem original-----
De: ARRL Web site [mailto:memberlist em www.arrl.org] Enviada em: Friday,
December 09, 2011 2:59 PM
Para: faugusto em terra.com.br
Assunto: ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA
December 9, 2011 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

What happened to that new "grand minima?"  Cycle 24 just keeps rolling
along, and for the first seven days in December, there were eight new
sunspot groups.  December 5 had the largest sunspot coverage over the past
week, with a daily sunspot number of 185.
Average daily sunspot number for the week rose over nine points to 133.9,
and average daily solar flux values rose exactly 19 points to 156.5.

NW7US has a graph at
http://hfradio.org/images/cycle23vs24_progress-lg.jpg comparing Cycle 24
progress with the upswing of Cycle 23.

It is based on the RI or monthly mean Brussels International Sunspot number,
which is lower than the SWPC Space Weather Operations sunspot numbers we use
in our bulletin.  The data source is
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt. This doesn't
reflect the upswing since the start of each cycle, and does not show the
long quiet period at the start of the current cycle. It just shows the
monthly mean data over the 25 months ending in September 2011, compared to
the 25 months ending in June 1998. The graph appears on
http://www.sunspotwatch.com/.

The latest forecast from USAF/NOAA has solar flux at 145 on December 9-12,
140 on December 13-16, 160 on December 17-18, and 155 on December 19-22.

Planetary A index for the same dates is expected to be 5 on December 9-10, 8
on December 11, and 5 on December 12-22.

The solar flux values in the above forecast changed quite a bit from what
was reported in the ARRL Letter on Thursday.  That was based on
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/120745DF.txt and this
forecast is based on
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/120845DF.txt.

Geophysical Institute Prague sees a quiet week ahead, with quiet conditions
December 9-11, quiet to unsettled December 12, and quiet again on December
13-15.

Conditions should be good for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend.

Every new month brings a slight upward revision in the smoothed sunspot
forecast. Note the differences between the table on page 19 in
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1888.pdf and page 17 in
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1892.pdf.

An article from the Royal Observatory of Belgium concerning rising solar
activity appears at,
http://www.solarnovus.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3940.

Brian Machesney reported some interesting multipath echoes on December 5. He
writes, "Strong 17m CW signals from A71EM to FN34 are suffering from what
sound like multipath echoes at 13:30Z on 5 Dec 11. There seem to be at least
three, distinct paths of nearly equal strength."

Jon Jones, N0JK sent comments about the winter sporadic-E season:
"The winter Es season is underway. On December 3, KB3RHR EN90 was into
Kansas on 50 MHz at 2315 UTC. This was E-skip. The Winter Es season tends to
peak around Christmas. This year with the higher solar flux the Es can link
to F2 and TEP openings."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at, k7ra em arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation at
http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7 were 89, 106, 138, 154, 185, 143,
and 122, with a mean of 133.9. 10.7 cm flux was 152.2, 157.3, 164.1, 163.6,
158.1, 151.1, and 148.9, with a mean of 156.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 9, 4, 2, 1, and 1, with a mean of
4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 4, 7, 4, 4, 0, and 1, with a
mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX


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